Policy discussions now should urgently focus on the road map for serious economic and institutional reforms to put India on a sustained high growth trajectory like the Chinese economy, says Jayanta Roy.
'One cannot take it that the economy has recovered, and the GST payment has increased because of that, or that production is back to January 2020 level.'
He attacked the dispensation over issues such as the state of the economy, the situation in Kashmir, the National Register of Citizens in Assam and action by probe agencies against opposition leaders.
Rather than a blind reproduction of the government template, a more productive way of enforcing affirmative action in the private sector could be to emulate an American model, suggests Kanika Datta.
India's services sector activity witnessed a sharp upturn in August on the back of stronger gains in new business, ongoing improvements in demand conditions and job creation, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from July's four-month low of 55.5 to 57.2 in August, amid a quicker upturn in business activity and the sharpest rise in employment for over 14 years. For the thirteenth straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output.
'Unemployment barely figures in the Budget except as a derived demand from the industry and infrastructure.' 'There is no effort at direct attack on unemployment.'
The senior Congress leader also said over 90 per cent of jobs are in the SME sector which requires an urgent push to boost the economy.
'Young professionals should be open for jobs in adjacent industries, pick up a contract job to have an opening balance, develop skills in the job in hand, invest in learning and develop cognitive skills and capacities.' 'Spend as per the need only.'
Rural and urban regions present different labour participation and employment levels. These differences also are not tuned to India exploiting its demographic dividend, says Mahesh Vyas.
Mandates have been handed out to staffing solutions companies such as Randstad India and TeamLease, officials at these firms have said, as players increasingly push into rural areas to capitalise on the uptick in the hinterlands.
'If the 7 million estimate is true, then either our understanding of the past was all wrong or the economy has changed dramatically but so surreptitiously that we did not even notice it,' says Mahesh Vyas.
The government must realise that it has very little time to recover itself, its reputation, its legacy - and India's fortunes,says Mihir S Sharma.
'People are getting back to work.' 'The worst seems to be over.' 'It is very likely that the recovery is mostly among the informal, self-employed, workers who cannot afford to be away from work for too long,' notes Mahesh Vyas.
'Some people even boldly ask for a 100% increase in the salary.'
Several opposition members, including from the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham and the Communist Party of India-Marxist, also pointed out that the government took almost two months to impose the lockdown after the first case came to light in January, and claimed the delay had proved costly.
He said it was not only a tax reform but 'is a measure that lends strength to the new culture of honesty'.
We will find it difficult to exceed an average of 5 per cent growth in the medium term, warns Shankar Acharya, the former chief economic adviser.
US President Barack Obama said there is natural convergence between India and the United States.
The study says the entire supply chain of goods and services will suffer a massive liquidity shock.
India's economic image is not affected due to Adani Group's recent decision to pull out Rs 20,000 crore FPO (follow-on public offers) amid allegations of financial wrongdoings, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Saturday.
After staging a strong recovery from COVID-induced slowdown in 2021, India's exports are likely to extend the growth story to the New Year also on increased demand in the global markets, boost in domestic manufacturing due to production-linked incentive schemes and implementation of some interim trade pacts. Expectations of positive growth in the country's exports are also backed up by the outlook of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) which predicts a 4.7 per cent expansion in the global merchandise trade volume in 2022. Exporters believe that the outbound shipments would cross $400 billion mark in this fiscal going by the current momentum and may reach $475 billion in 2022-23.
'The roadmap ahead seems very difficult especially in the rural areas where there is very poor infrastructure, vaccine reach and hesitancy.' 'These are a deadly cocktail for the next wave.'
The substantially increased economic dualism may exert lasting negative influences which could include a reduced potential for economic growth; the persistence of a very weak employment and poverty situation; rising social and political discord; and heightened vulnerability to geopolitical challenges, cautions Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
The central government's deposits with the RBI had fallen to just Rs 100 crore as of June 8.
The country's demographic dividend is dissipating, with seriously adverse consequences for young India, asserts Shankar Acharya, former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India.
The employment that is returning is mostly essential services required by Indian households. Most urban Indian households cannot function without a retinue of maids, cooks, drivers, cleaners, notes Mahesh Vyas.
Rising unemployment rate reflects a rise in the labour participation rate, which in India's case has been worryingly low.
'Usually, urban wage rates are 50 per cent higher than rural wage rates. But, this could be narrowing very rapidly now,' points out Mahesh Vyas, CEO, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday inaugurated the 6th India Mobile Congress at Pragati Maidan in Delhi and launched 5G services. The 5G telecom services seek to provide seamless coverage, high data rate, low latency and highly reliable communications system. The three major telecom operators of the country demonstrated one use case each in front of the prime minister to show the potential of 5G technology in India.
'Our first great challenge is to create 12 million new jobs each year, to make the demographic dividend an economic dividend.' 'We are nowhere near that,' points out Mohan Guruswamy.
'Two consecutive quarters of negative growth are the technical definition of an economic recession, and for the first time in this generation's memory, we may be staring at one,' observes Aakar Patel.
This whirlwind of activity only confirms that rushing around creating an impression of pompous busy-ness is not the same thing as solving problems, argues Mitali Saran.
It's high time we now turn the popular question on its head -- when there is no growth in jobs for several years, how can the real GDP grow at 7 per cent per annum, says Mahesh Vyas.
As employers eye quality talent, employees will enjoy an upper hand in demanding high pay, better benefits, remote work options and other perks, predicts Navneet Singh, CEO, Avsar, a talent management firm.
'Under-employment continues to be a very big problem.' 'What we see today is many youth who would have accepted any kind of job are not willing to accept any job.' 'They are ready to wait for a better job, one that justifies their educational qualification. 'This is one of the reasons why unemployment has risen.'
More people felt optimistic about their economic condition in November than in the same month a year ago, says Mahesh Vyas.
'Wage earners are shrinking. In both, the organised and unorganised sectors. And, entrepreneurs are growing.' 'But the increase in entrepreneurship is of a kind that does not create salaried employment or daily wage employment,' says Mahesh Vyas.
India has entered a 'demographic sweet spot' with half of its population being under the age of 29. This 'demographic dividend' is likely to last for 2-3 decades and provides the government a unique opportunity to harness the vast potential of India's youth, points out Raj Kishore Mishra, the former civil servant turned development professional.
'In India, a large proportion of the labour force does not have a regular job.' 'People are mostly employed as daily wage workers, agricultural labourers, small farmers and self-employed traders.' 'These move in and out of "jobs" fairly rapidly.' 'It is the high proportion of these workers in India that makes unemployment volatile,' explains Mahesh Vyas.
As India looks to mend its Covid-battered economy, one thing that will grab the attention of all concerned is the path that both wholesale and retail inflation will follow. Even the Reserve Bank of India in its latest policy statement said, "Going forward, the inflation trajectory is likely to be shaped by uncertainties impinging on the upside and the downside.
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